Electric and Off-Road
Electric and Off-Road
A perfect match but are we overdoing it?
Electrification is simple for a few two-wheeler formats, like commuter scooters. It is quite evident, and as a result, there are 2078 models of electric scooters on sale worldwide.
That is a made-up number, but you get the gist. Also, we may not be very far off.
It is challenging for many other form factors to turn electric as the use case characteristics are difficult to replicate with electric powertrains and energy storage. These include most performance-related use cases, such as cruisers, adventure vehicles, sports vehicles, etc.
Dig deeper, and the common thread connecting all the above use cases is the requirement for high power, extended highway cruise ability, and everything else that makes electric powertrains wither and die. A battery depletes fast if you wring the throttle and maintain a high speed for long periods. The fun ends soon.
A few weeks earlier, we plotted the various use cases of ICE against the ease of electrification on a Power-Range graph.
Apart from Commuters, one use case stands out for its fit with electric powertrains: Motocrossers. This discourse will include all adjacent categories like Enduros, Trials, and Supermotos. At the same time, road-going ADVs don’t count—that’s a really bad use case for electrification.
Sorry, Zero and Energica.
Motocrossers, Cross-Country, Enduros, Trials, Supermotos - Simplifying the Terminology
Most manufacturers and customers use these terms interchangeably and are not too far off. The use cases are far too close to each other, and so are the appearances. So, to seek clarity, we decided to raid KTM’s website to find some answers. Note, we picked up KTM due to its strong positioning in Motocrossers and allied categories but the discourse won’t change even if we picked up any other brand.
We won’t waste precious time defining what makes street-legal and non-street-legal. At a very basic level, if the motorcycle has a headlamp, it is likely street-legal. That also means that it would be complying with emission norms.
KTM has motocrossers—hardcore off-road motorcycles with a 21” front wheel and 19” rear wheel. The wheels are spoked, and the tires have an off-road pattern. The rider in the KTM 450 SX-F sits 958mm off the ground. These motorcycles are quite compact, with even the fuel tanks made as compact as possible - just something that would allow an hour of fun.
Mind you, KTM offers its motocross range with 4-stroke, 2-stroke, and electric powertrains. They are not street-legal.
Then come to Enduros - street-legal cousins of the Motocrossers. The wheel sizes drop to 21” at the front and 18” at the rear and the saddle height drops by a few mm. These are still hardcore, though not as hardcore as Motocrossers, mostly due to the tire patterns. Other comprehensive differences include a larger tank, as Enduros are supposed to go long distances.
Next comes Cross Country, the other cousin. Think of this as a non-street-legal Enduro, or one may also consider it a long-distance capable Motocrosser. It has everything that the Motocrosser has, plus a larger tank. There are subtle changes to engine tuning as well.
Finally comes Super Moto, the wannabe cousin. Think of these as carrying the motocross styling but shod with smaller road wheels and slick tires. Now, it is up to the manufacturer to make them street-legal or not - KTM has one model of each type in its range.
Another category—Trials—motorcycles used for Trials riding, a popular non-speed motorcycle event in the UK and Spain. Trial motorcycles are made to be ridden standing up, and the saddle does not exist.
Why Electrification Fits Motocrossers?
A motocrosser (and similar categories) needs high torque with modest power, which most mid-spec electric motors can easily provide. These types of motorcycles can also live with a low range, which means the machine does not need to be weighed down by an obese battery.
That also automatically ticks the box against the lightweight requirement. Motocrossers are solo-rider machines that often spend some time jumping through the air, so lightweight is desired. Lightweight and electric are not natural fits, but manufacturers have learned to save weight with clever engineering and exotic materials.
Most importantly, the rider wants low-end acceleration and control, which an electric traction motor with the right electronics can easily provide.
Beyond Motocrossers, when you lean into hardcore territories like Trials, the machine does not need to be street-legal, which means several components don’t need to be developed. One of the primary components is the headlamp - they have notoriously long lead times, need separate homologation in some key markets, and constantly lead to fights between the styling team and the check signers. Remove that, and there is the potential to shave off three months of development time.
The electric fit for motocrossers is so beautiful that there is already a flood of electric motocrossers in the market, and many more are under development.
What makes the Market Attractive?
As of 2023, we estimate the global Motocross/Dirt bike market at about 1.5 million units. That’s one-and-half million of quite expensive motorcycles that sell every year. An entry-mid KTM like the 250 SX retails at more than USD 9000 in the US. Extrapolate that, and we are looking at a USD 15-17bn market. Most of this market is in the developed part of the world, so there is likely to be good price elasticity - the USD 15bn market can move up by a couple of billion easily without any significant change in the sales volume.
Beyond the price is the passion. Each buyer is a committed user as they are buying niche machines, not all-rounders—not many ride their 500 EXC-F to work. The high price point means the demographic is well-heeled, passionate off-road enthusiasts.
A passionate buyer is likely to indulge in accessories and upgrades, which always give manufacturers better margins.
Money all around…
Electric mobility entrant look at the situation as a sum of:
It’s a large market.
It’s a large market of well-heeled alphas.
It’s a large market of well-heeled alphas and with good price elasticity.
At least some of the well-heeled alphas are not skilled enough to extract the maximum out of their machines.
It’s a format that lends well to electrification.
We can break into this market with a superior product that is also
dumbereasier to use.If not a Honda or Yamaha, there is still a Beta or Suzuki to target.
The result has been a mad rush to design electric motocrossers or something close to that.
We have been busy putting together the Electric Two Wheelers and Urban Mobility—Global Landscape and Prospects report, which tries to cover all significant electric two-wheeler start-ups. A rough walkthrough of the list indicates that today, more than 40 models and 100+ variants of Electric Motocrossers are already present in the market or under development.
That’s a Flood
Any flood overcrowds a product segment, however promising the segment may be. The past has taught us that the faster they come, the sooner they depart: the current enthusiasm for electric motocrossers is not likely to end well for many players.
Not everyone who can cobble together an electric motocrosser in their garage would be a significant player tomorrow. It is easy to design, slightly difficult to prototype and complete bollocks to industrialise anything.
Where did it start?
We don’t know! The motocrosser form factor is one of the most popular for DIYers and mod shops to tinker with. Someone somewhere figured out that a motor and battery would work well in this body style, and we started rolling.
In Europe, KTM has been selling the E-SX Freeride since 2014, making it one of the first organized players to offer an electric motocrosser.
Alta Motors and its Impact
One of the first remarkable electric motocrossers was the (now dead) Alta Motors Redshift, which debuted in North America around the same time. Alta is something of a legend in the North American electric motorcycle industry. In 2018, the Redshift became the first podium finisher for an all-electric bike in an AMA professional series.
The production version of the Redshift came with an 18.7 kW motor that peaked at 30 kW. Notably, the motor was water-cooled and could rev up to 14,000 rpm. Alta said the motor weighed less than 7kg. This was 2017, and such a motor was unparalleled. Today, Stark Future offers a 14200 rpm motor.
The battery pack was an Alta-designed 5.8 kWh unit with an 185 Wh/kg energy density, one of the best in 2017.
Electric motocrossers tend to suffer from weight, but Alta engineered the frame to make it as lightweight as possible—the chassis core functioned as the outer motor casing and also incorporated the cooling circuit for the motor and inverter, as well as the transmission case for the gear reduction. Much of the frame was a forged monocoque, with the outer motor casing being the central member.
As in many automotive technology stories, Alta was ahead of its time but ran out of funding. After failed negotiations with Harley-Davidson and Bombardier (BRP), the company filed for insolvency in late 2018.
Here is Ryan Kluftinger of FortNine telling the Alta story in his unique way.
Alta and the early wave of electric motocrossers are the inspiration for the revolution that we see today.
Technology and Competition wait for no one.
A flood of more than 40 models also means that competition is already moving to the next stage. It may no longer be about making a good electric motocrosser bike, but the market may already be moving to make outstanding electric motocrossers.
We pause here and resume this discussion next week as we look at:
What are the major global players
What the ICE incumbents are doing?
How are the start-ups differentiating?
Who will survive?