Electric and Offroad - Part Deux
Electric and Offroad - Part Deux
How fast can a nascent market get crowded?
We will try to limit this discussion to street-legal electric motocrossers (unless the name is Stark) for adults. Kid’s and Trial bikes (as sold by KTM, Oset, Kuberg, and many more manufacturers) are a promising but different business segment.
Last week, we discussed that all the leisure motorcycle body types, Motocrossers, and all allied formats (Enduros, Cross Country, Trials, Supermotos) are the best suited to turn electric. There are multiple reasons: solo riders, compact sizes, moderate motor sizes, preference for traction over speed, short-duration usages, etc.
The rider runs out before the battery does.
The crux of the argument is that electric motocrossers make sense because the rider runs out of stamina before the battery does. So the normal fun ride looks something like this:
Load the motorcycle on a pick-up truck and drive to the nearest trail.
Let rip. Have fun for an hour. You and the battery are exhausted.
Load back on the truck and drive home.
Recharge.
If you are still not exhausted at the end of #2, many electric motocrossers come with portable packs.
This equation of equilibrium between Battery Capacity and Rider Stamina is the core business model for the electric motocrosser industry.
The business model defines the enthusiasm for this segment of the market. Numerous start-ups and established players are ready with electric motocrossers. Most of them would have the challenge of industrialization—getting the prototypes to mass production.
We should point out that not everyone has mass production in mind. Many start-ups in Europe have jumped into the business because of their passion. However, their manufacturing and manufacturability are often limited to some double-digit units in a year.
Looking at the already overcrowded market, it may be sensible to divide the Electric Motocross/Enduro market into two broad sections:
The cheap and fun
The serious dope
Cheap and Fun
In any niche market driven by passion and fashion, the market volume is driven by the aspirants - people who cannot afford or control the real machines but want something that looks similar. Like all hardcore SUVs, even the most hardcore motocrossers spend little time on the trail. As a result, the market is more biased towards street-legal, easy-to-ride, moderate-power motocrossers.
At the entry-level of the market, what that means is that we have an offering of L1e (28mph/45kph) class motorcycles that can be ridden on beginner’s licenses. They offer city and sometimes off-road fun in a lightweight, manageable package. The motocrosser is becoming more of a symbolic shape than a use case, the fun element superseding the offroading requirements.
We see that a lot in the new launches from established players like VMoto (Off-R), Niu (XQi), and Zeeho (CF Moto). However, the established players in this segment are newborn Chinese brands like Talaria and Sur-Ron. Easy to ride also means easy to engineer, and the Chinese brands took the first mover advantage in the market a couple of years back as the first electric funcrossers entered the market.
Till 2022, Talaria was the best-selling electric motocrosser in the markets outside China. Sales of the Talaria Sting were just north of 1000 units, which kept the Chinese brand at the top of the charts.
So small was the market just 18 months back.
The Talaria Sting (above) is an exercise in minimalism. The road-legal variant runs on a 4 kW motor that peaks at 8 kW on a 60V system. The top speed is restrained to 45 kph / 28 mph (L1e), and thanks to a 2.3 kWh battery, the Sting can run for more than 100 km on a single charge. Most importantly, the solo-rider Sting weighs only 58 kg.
The components are basic yet high-quality, giving the bike durability that most cheap Chinese brands would never provide. The Sting road-legal retails at USD 3500, while the non-road-legal variant is priced even lower. This is manageable, high-quality, easy to run, and very affordable fun. No other funcrosser ticks so many boxes. Talaria’s popularity has been climbing in the US and Europe.
Sur-Ron
The other brand that is fast climbing the popularity charts is Sur Ron. Like Talaria, Sur Ron is also manufactured in Chongqing, China. The range starts with the Light Bee, the entry-level electric funcrosser. It takes the lightweighting up by another notch as the street-legal solo rider machine weighs 50kg. Power comes from a mid-drive motor that peaks at 6.0 kW and drives the rear wheel through a two-stage reduction. What makes the Sur Ron seemingly better than the Talaria is that this one has a 2.4 kWh removable battery. The range is claimed to be more than 100 km per charge.
The Sur Ron is cheaper at USD 2800 and has been fast-rising in popularity charts.
The Sur Ron, the Talaria, and many more upcoming Chinese-made motorcycles point to a lucrative electric motorcycle segment for European and US-based startups. There is a market for funcrossers that are easy to ride, easy to engineer, need small batteries and motors, and are manageable.
The problem is that Europe and the US cannot engineer as fast as the Chinese nor deliver in Europe/the US at prices that the Chinese can. For the Chinese players, it was a game, set, and match even before the match started.
Cake learned it the hard way.
Arguably, both the Sting and Light Bee are L1e (beginner’s) category motorcycles. Both look skinny and manageable and, at first glance, appear more like electric pedelecs with knobby tires. Technically, they are not, though they are not far off.
But what if someone wanted something more capable without getting too serious?
Enter the Niu XQi.
This is a new launch from Niu, which has seen the space in the market. Unlike the skinny Light Bee/ Sting, the Niu looks more wholesome and a proper motorcycle. Peak power is 8.0 kW, and the Niu can have a 75 kph top speed if you buy the L3e variant. Energy comes from a 2.4kWh portable pack.
Niu is a Shanghai-based brand with a factory in Changzhou. It retails for less than USD 6000 in the US market.
There is also VMoto with its Off-R, which they claim is a proper dirt bike—it does look more purposeful than the Niu. However, its power and range numbers are not very different from those of Niu. When it goes on sale, the Off-R should be slightly more expensive than the XQi in the US market. One can also buy a more street-oriented version - the On-R.
VMoto is listed on the ASX (Australia) and has offices in Shanghai and a factory in Nanjing.
The Serious Dope
With the ‘Cheap and Fun’ segment of the market firmly under Chinese control and no way a homegrown startup may compete with them on design, specs, or price, North American/European-based start-ups should head to the Serious Dope part of the market.
This market segment creates very capable off-road machines that address the hardcore enthusiast. Price points are high, which is okay as this segment caters to passion.
Here, they run into Stark.
What makes Stark special
Visit the Stark website, and the statement "The most advanced electric motorcycle in the world" is in your face. They make no bones about it. We agree…partially. The most advanced motocrosser? Yes. The most advanced electric motorcycle? A bit far-fetched.
But make no mistake—the Stark Varg is probably the best motocrosser in the world. It is hard-core, which also means it is non-street-legal. It competes with full-size motocrossers—make that 450cc equivalent if you compare it with ICE.
We feel that the motor revs, the battery’s power density, and the weight of the machine would the three key parameters on which the tech prowess of electric two-wheelers should be measured.
The Stark aced everything. The motor comes in two configurations—with 45 kW and 60 kW peak power options. It is a carbon fiber sleeve motor (we have seen that before in the Tesla Model S-Plaid) that revs to 14200 rpm. The carbon sleeve construction allows the motor to be only 9kg in weight, making it a 6.7 kW/kg power density, one of the highest we have seen in this class of vehicles.
Stark says it is the highest for any electric motorcycle, and they may be right for now. Lightning won’t tell their motor’s weight, and the Damon falls short on power-to-weight due to the integrated gearbox. Also, Hypersport has yet to enter production. The only motor that may outclass the Strak is that on the Triumph TE-1, but that remains a concept motorcycle as we write this.
The water-cooled motor runs on a 360V system, which explains its compactness and lightweight. Stark manages to ease out 275 Nm of torque on the countershaft and 938 Nm at the wheel.
On the battery side, the 6.5kWh pack is sealed inside a patent-pending lightweight honeycomb magnesium case. Using magnesium reduces the weight as the battery is the heaviest part of any electric motocrosser. But we didn’t need to tell you that.
Stark's main focus is Weight—the main frame, made of chrome-moly steel tubes, weighs only 6 kg, one of the lightest in the business. They also use a carbon-fiber front subframe and a forged aluminum rear subframe. The swingarm and triple clamp, as well as the handlebar, are forged out of the same metal.
Then Stark claims that the stainless steel footpegs are the lightest in the world—we have no way to corroborate that, so we would take this at face value.
We see more innovation in the skid-plate, a necessary component of any motocrosser. Almost every manufacturer puts a metal plate bolted/welded to the frame under the engine. Stark changes that to low-density foam for better shock absorption.
The Varg's special focus on lightweight construction allows it to weigh 118kg. That’s not too far from the KTM 450 SX-F’s wet weight of nearly 110kg.
Oh, it also has a specially designed Android Stark Phone that mounts on a wireless charger atop the handlebar.
You are wrong if you think the above tech specs make Stark special. The specs and the performance help, but industrialization sets the Varg apart from the 40-odd other electric motocrossers in the market.
The Varg retails at about USD 13000, with taxes and shipping extra. You can add USD 1300 more if you opt for the Alpha version (15 kW more), a side stand, and a foot-operated rear brake. These are very competitive prices and match the KTM 450 XC-F (USD 12500 plus shipping), a sweet deal for a more competitive motorcycle than the KTM.
In December 2022, Stark received a EUR 50m investment from Royal Enfield. The India-based British heritage brand is the world's largest lifestyle ICE motorcycle manufacturer, selling nearly a million units in 2023. RE may know little about electric motorcycles for now but recognize a good company when they see one.
The EUR 50m valued Stark at a neat EUR 500m. This was an impressive valuation for a manufacturer with a pre-industrialized motorcycle, even when the motorcycle is as capable as the Varg.
RE has made strong inputs on taking the Varg to mass production while ensuring industrial quality. Both are weak points for cottage industry-level production brands offering motocrossers. The Indian company’s impact can be seen in that Stark started delivering motorcycles to customers in mid-2023 and, by the end of the year, had ramped up production to 800 motorcycles per month. At this rate, it may take more than a year to clear the 17000 pending orders. The company says they are on track for annual revenues of EUR 90m in 2024.
The serious Chinese
Even in this market segment, the Chinese have made serious inroads. The most hardcore motocrossers are arguably Arctic Leopard. They have been around for some time and are reckoned in the market. The range extends from the Mountain Leopard (non-street-legal, 20 kW) at the low end to the Cheetah (37 kW) at the top. In the Cheetah, a 6.75 kWh battery ensures a claimed range of 215 km. These are hardcore motocross motorcycles, yet the starting price is competitive at USD 9.4k for the Cheetah, much lower than that of the other models.
The fastest-growing brand, Sur Ron, has the Storm Bee and Ultra Bee in its portfolio. The Storm Bee is a full-size, non-street-legal motocrosser. The full size is disputable because the motor power is only 22.5 kW at peak. The Varg does 45 kW even in the base version. However, even that makes the Storm Bee a competitive, cost-effective alternative. It retails at USD 8.5k.
Other new entrants from China, like Tromox and GoWow, offer compelling products.
Tromox is a rising brand, and the MC-10 funcrosser-styled urban motorcycle is an attractive package. It packs two portable batteries, each 2.1 kWh. The motor is 11 kW, and the MC-10 can manage a top speed of 90 kph. The Tromox retails for a little more than USD 9k.
GoWow has the Ori, a 72V-9 kW dirt bike that apes the Kalk. Traipsing around EICMA 2022, we saw the Ori, mistaking it for the Kalk at first glance. The Ori retails at USD 11k, which is expensive for a Chinese-built, low-powered (9 kW), non-street-legal motocrosser, but the specifications are paper. The Ori uses high-quality components and packs a big-yet-removable 2.9 kWh battery. We like what we see.
In comparison, the European-designed lookalike Cake Kalk retails for nearly USD 15k. Cake went under. Interestingly, GoWow was one of the bidders for the bankrupt Cake.
Tromox and GoWow, as well as VMoto, Niu, Talaria, and Sur Ron, are examples of Chinese scale and the capability to price high-quality, desirable products at competitive prices.
This leaves little room for European/North American-bred start-ups, all creating passion projects for exotic motocrossers. There are many - Armotia, LIION, Electric Motion, Tacita, Bykstar, GR1T, CAB (though technically they are pedelecs), Dust Moto, EMX, LMX, Flux Performance, Olivier, to name a few.
We pulled out these names from the upcoming Global Landscape and Prospects—Electric Two-Wheelers and Urban Mobility report. There would be more—the developed world is not short on passion.
The Pointlessness of Tacita
Note that you may replace Tacita with any other brands above, and you wouldn't be far from the truth. Tacita is just the most extreme.
We are always intrigued by Tacita. They have been around for a long time now, and every year, they introduce a new range of models, all limited editions, because they sell in limited volumes.
The Tacita T-Race Enduro is an exotic motorcycle with a starting price of more than EUR 19k (USD 21k). We are not fans of its looks, and there are European customizers who would change it into something different looking (What! spend more money?) because well-heeled passion is boundless.
The Tacita has class-leading features (the Stark Varg is a league of its own and the Tacitas don’t come close) like a 9.0 kW batery that operates a 120V system and a liquid-cooled 34kW motor. A five-speed gearbox would also explode the motor torque at the rear wheel. These are high-end specs, but we still cannot fathom a price of USD 21k.
The ICE Incumbents Embracing Electric
Among established ICE brands, KTM was the first one to embrace electric. The first KTM electric motocrosser was launched around 2014, and the brand currently offers the Freeride EXC. The electric enduro is street-legal and is powered by an 18 kW motor (9 kW steady state) with energy supplied from a 3.9 kWh battery. The Freeride has a high-voltage architecture at 260V, so the battery charges 0-100% in 110 minutes. KTM does well by limiting the weight to 111 kg in the current model.
The weight may sound impressive, but it is no longer competent compared to the much more powerful 350 EXC-F (51 PS/38 kg). The 350 EXC-F tips the scales at 113 kg, slightly higher than the Freeride. The power difference is quite telling, and the Freeride EX-C has not been a sales success. Last we heard, there were murmurs that KTM would discontinue the range.
While KTM started offering an electric model long ago, the other significant ICE manufacturers have been late starters. Honda does not have an electric motocrosser in the market yet, though it has been testing the CR Electric Proto for some time now. In February this year, the company announced plans to field the CR Electric Proto as an entry in the FIM E-Xplorer World Cup.
Like Honda, Yamaha is also at a prototype testing stage. Its first electric concept was the TY-E Trials motorcycle, which Yamaha unveiled in 2018. It went on to participate in the FIM Trial-E Cup Championship, and after a two-year hiatus, Yamaha again fielded it in the 2022 championship.
Patent filings indicate that the company is also working on an electric motocross motorcycle. Considering the usual lag between the design patent filing and the motorcycle's materialization, we expect a production model to arrive in 2025.
The eerie thing about the Japanese is that they move in parallel, almost like they exchange notes at the backend.
The Suzuki electric motocrosser design patent filings also surfaced last month. This seems to be even earlier than the Honda and Yamaha filings and maybe two years away.
Kawasaki is even farther away, considering we have not yet been able to dig out any design patent filings.
So, every Japanese manufacturer is seemingly taking their own sweet time entering a market that is already inundated with products or upcoming products. The Jap-four has followed a similar strategy across electric mobility.
Maybe their confidence in entering late comes from the fact that they own the ICE end of the market and know the customer better than anyone.
Meanwhile, Stark can continue to shine.
All the manufacturers mentioned above are covered in InsightEV’s upcoming Global Landscape and Prospects - Electric Two-Wheelers and Urban Mobility report in detail. Message us to ask for a sample company profile.