Remember, March 2026 was a breakthrough month for the Indian E2W industry. Penetration levels for high-speed electric two-wheelers touched nearly 9.8%. We wrote about it in detail and, since then, have been running a mini-series on why the growth in March is not sustainable.
The Numbers
As expected, the data in April did show a slump. Overall numbers declined from 191,100 units in March to 148,800 in April, a 22.1% month-on-month decline. This represents a penetration level of 7.8%. Last month, we were sitting at 9.8%.
But considering that March numbers were driven by fear and greed, never stable pillars of any bull run, it might be a better idea to compare April to January and February. In January, the numbers were 122,400, so we are up 21.57% from that base. We are also up 33.8% over Feb sales volumes of 111,200 units. As a comparison, the E2W penetration level in January was 4.5%, and that in February was 6.5%.
This is sustained growth and momentum, any which way we slice and dice, and we should be happy about that.
OEMs: Winners and Winners
At the individual brand level, this is how things panned out.
TVS remains the market leader with sales of 37,827 units, a 23.5% month-on-month decline.
Bajaj remains a strong number two with sales of 32,883 units, a decline of 28.9%. Between March and April, Bajaj has considerably closed the gap to TVS.
Ather remains at the number three, even though in the first couple of weeks, it was neck and neck with Bajaj. At 27,024 units, Ather’s sales declined by 24.2% on a month-on-month basis.
In 4th place remains Hero-Vida with sales of 15,230 units, a 28.9% decline over the previous month.
Rounding off the top 5 is Ola Electric with sales of 12,166 units, a 20.2% improvement in sales over the previous month. Ola is the only significant player that has managed to improve sales this month.
OEM Focus: Ola Electric
A few months back, I put this out on LinkedIn.
I meant every single word of that. I still do. March and April have been good for Ola Electric as it has shown a strong bounce back. However, considering that we are not a $50 social media influencer, it is our job to point out that the bounce back is more of a dead cat bounce than anything else. The fundamentals in the field have not changed. Customer complaints are still plenty, and the company’s focus is more on creating a positive vibe than actually doing anything significant. Cheap PR has run far ahead of the service department.
Over the last two months, Ola has been aggressively launching discount schemes and special pricing incentives, supported by a flurry of positive-sounding press releases and a barrage of cheap influencers on social media. At times, the announcements even defied logic.
This, and the fact that we did hit rock bottom in Feb 2026, meant a rebound did happen and Ola managed to claw back to the fifth spot.
Meanwhile, the company saw its credit rating downgraded to BBB- by ICRA.
Apart from E2Ws, where customer confidence for the brand is low, Ola’s main problem remains its Cell-Gigafactory. It will take a long time to scale up to any meaningful levels, and when it does, there is no demand for the cells that it makes. We remain steadfast in the analysis that the Ola Cell Gigafactory is not a moat for the company’s business. It is the riptide that only results in tragedy.
As a result, even the numbers of March and April have not changed our forecast for the company in our Indian Two-Wheeler Market Forecast. Beyond 2027, we have a blunt forecast for the company, and that has not changed.