I Rise; You Fall
– Optimus Prime to The Fallen; Transformers 2 (Revenge of the Fallen, 2009)
also…
Indian ICE two-wheeler sales to E2W penetration. Every month.
After a brief respite in December 2025, when E2W penetration levels spiked up to 7.37% owing to a temporary slowdown in ICE two-wheeler sales, E2W penetration levels have collapsed again in January. E2W penetration was down to 4.5%, its lowest level since April 2024.
Mind you, sales were not bad. E2W sales were above 122,000 units, their highest in the last three months, and were 24.4% higher than in January 2025. It’s just that ICE two-wheeler sales accelerated much faster in the month.
Pecking Order Stays the Same
Within the broader numbers, the pecking order remained the same. However, the leaders and the laggards within the top six are cementing their place. Market leader TVS is now pulling a lead over the others. It sold 34428 units in January 2026, a market share of 28.12%. For context, the brand’s marketshare over 2025 was 23.35%.
TVS stretching the lead means Bajaj has slowed down a bit. It sold 25505 units in the month, a market share of 20.83%. In 2025, the brand had a 21.08% share of the market.
In the early part of the month, Bajaj and Ather Energy were neck-and-neck, separated by a few hundred units, until Bajaj pulled ahead. Third-placed Ather sold 21915 units in January 2026, a 17.9% market share. In 2025, the brand had a 15.69% market share.
Hero-Vida remained in fourth place, selling 13273 scooters, a 10.84% market share. In 2025, Hero-Vida owned 8.53% share of the market.
The big loser remains Ola Electric with sales of 7511 units. It had a market share of 6.13%, a big drop from the 2025 share of 15.57%. These were Ola’s lowest retail numbers in the last 41 months.
Ola’s continuous decline is expected, considering the problems that the company continues to face on the service front, which have led to long-term brand erosion. There was a dead cat bounce last month when sales improved month-over-month. Ola was quick to issue a press release, interpreting data at a ridiculously microscopic level to suggest a market share of 12% riding on the start of deliveries of its new model variants energised with Ola-manufactured 4680 cells.
We interpret the temporary, few-day-long sales spike as Ola delivering the bookings it held – the 4680 variant bookings had started many months back, deliveries starting only last month. Once the bookings were served, there was nothing left in terms of demand.
Will the Pecking Order Change?
For the early part of the month, sixth-placed Greaves Electric (Ampere) was ahead of Ola Electric in vehicle sales. At 5335 units, there is still a considerable gap, but it is narrowing.
What is interesting is the rapid improvement in numbers for the next three OEMs – River, BGauss, and Sprinto.
