LiveWire Issues a ‘Liquidity and Going Concern’ Notice

I don’t often revisit the same company the next day, but LiveWire seems to be heading toward serious problems. Since yesterday’s analysis, LiveWire released its Q3 results, issued a “Liquidity and Going Concern” notice, and saw its share price tank by 42%. So I had to.

This is what I wrote yesterday, worrying about the health of LiveWire fact that Harley seems unwilling to burn any more money.

LiveWire’s Final Short Circuit? Deepesh Rathore · October 29, 2026 Read full story

Before I ponder why LiveWire is in the mess it’s in now, let’s get the numbers out of the way first.

The Numbers

The company sold 241 motorcycles in the quarter. Statistically, that is 31% growth from the 184 motorcycles sold in Q3 ’25. The running 12-month volume stands at 980 units.

The motorcycle part of the business reported revenues of USD 2.7 million. The data indicates a significant drop in per-unit revenue between Q2 26 and Q3 26, from about USD 13,500 per unit to USD 11,200, suggesting lower transaction prices.

The motorcycle business ended with operating losses of USD 17 million.

STACYC, LiveWire’s kids and balance bikes business, reported revenues of USD 5.2 million, an 11% bump from Q3 ’25 revenues of USD 4.7 million.

However, after a quarter of staying just above water, STACYC also went into the red again, posting USD 0.6 million in operating losses.

As a result, LiveWire reported net losses of USD 18.6 million. This was better than Q3 ’25 (net losses of USD 19.4 million, but it was still the worst quarter of the last four.

Liquidity and Going Concerns

From LiveWire’s Q3 26 financial results press release of yesterday:

This is exactly what I said yesterday. LiveWire has been burning a generous amount of cash every quarter. All was well until H-D stood behind it with its checkbook. Now, Harley no longer wants to fund this adventure.

From yesterday’s analysis:

The financials show no significant change. Burn and pace have stayed steady in Q3, so LiveWire’s cash situation aligns with the above forecast. A burn of more than USD 4.0 million per month means that cash will run out before next September, exactly what the company’s Liquidity and Going Concern statement professes.

But things have been exactly the same over the last four years; LiveWire has been on a downhill trajectory, with no improvement in the gradient. So what changed now?

Harley’s Revival Means LiveWire Must…

I should have titled this “A Tale of Two Charts.” The reason LiveWire likely won’t be recapitalized by its 89% owner anymore is in these two charts.

Here is Harley (HOG) stock in 2026. Artie Starrs took over as the CEO in Oct 2025. Harley was at a low as its traditional audience moved away. Since then, there has been a revival of sorts. There has been an improvement in retail sales and demand. As a result, Harley has raised its guidance over the last three quarters. Artie has his “Back to the Bricks” strategy in play to revive Harley.

I look at the minor retail sales revival as more of an inventory reset. The Back-to-the-Bricks strategy is only one quarter into execution, so the effect cannot be that strong. An important factor is that Artie is now a year in the seat, and he needs to show results. Meanwhile, the H-D stock is up 49% this year, though it’s still 16% down from its 5-year high.

The CEO has to ensure that the momentum continues. LiveWire is a really bad distraction. You don’t want a business that burns nearly 4 million a month on your books for long.

The LiveWire (LVWR) stock is a complete contrast. It is down 83% this year as of yesterday’s close.

It fell 42% yesterday after the company’s “Liquidity and Going Concerns” statement. Today, as I type this, it is down another 14%. I have to type faster…

LiveWire Never Crossed the First Hurdle

Electric motorcycle startups worldwide start with gross margin. Once you cross the threshold of becoming gross margin positive, you chip away at things. You dig deeper into your operations to optimize things, try to gain volumetric efficiency wherever possible, redesign components, systems, and processes, eventually inching towards operating margins.

The problem is that LiveWire has not even come close to becoming gross margin positive.

Delve deeper into the LiveWire numbers beyond the mandatory operating loss and net profit/net loss statements, and it’s difficult to find anything positive. For Q3 26, they made USD 7.86 million in revenue, while the cost of goods sold was USD 8.24 million, a negative gross margin of 4.6%.

If that looks like “We are almost there” to becoming gross margin positive, then let me remind you this is a mix of LiveWire motorcycles and STACYC business. The kids’ bike business is much more sensible and profitable than LiveWire motorcycles.

I went to check the 2025 annual financials, the last full-year ones available, where LiveWire provides the numbers separately for both the businesses. For the full year, the motorcycle business made USD 6.06 million against cost of goods sold of USD 18.06 million. That’s a negative gross margin of 66.44%. On top of that, in 2025, they had people, selling, administrative, and engineering expenses of USD 61.84 million, out of which almost USD 30 million was in people expenses.

That is a futile situation. A marginal increase in sales only makes the situation worse for LiveWire. They are bleeding on every motorcycle; they bleed more. They need a massive increase in sales, more like a 100x increase, to gain any volumetric efficiency. The problem is that no market exists for 100,000 high-priced electric motorcycles in North America, or even worldwide.

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In short, LiveWire is in a market where they don’t make money, even at the cross level, on a motorcycle, with little room to grow sales. Sales substitution, that is, replacing high-price, high-cost models with moderate-price, low-cost models like the S4 Honcho, may alleviate things.

Well-Heeled when Bootstrapped was Needed

I like working with startups. I like people with hunger and who want to change the world. Some do well; a lot fail, but that’s life. The most common point with every startup is that they’re bootstrapped. Even after raising a generous seed round, money is never a luxury. I have worked with startups who have raised double-digit USD million rounds, and the CEO/ founders still work with the mindset of “just pay my rent and buy me sandwiches” till the time the startup can start making real money.

LiveWire is the antithesis of the startup way of thinking. A glance through the remuneration figures indicates management take-homes at a level as if they were running a company generating USD 500 million in revenue and at least some PAT. In 2025, Kareem took home USD 600,000 in base salary, along with USD 480,000 in cash incentives. It feels like the bar for taking home the bonus was set too low. USD 480k represents an 80% bonus level.

You may argue this is on par with American corporate salaries, but it is definitely not on par for an electric motorcycle startup still struggling with negative 66% gross margins.

Restructuring Would be Decisive

Harley is serious about the LiveWire restructuring, as shown by the USD 140k fees paid to the consultant running the exercise. At USD 1.68 million and more, this is a costly exercise. There is no way that it will stop short of finding a buyer for the LiveWire motorcycle business, STACYC, and the recently acquired Dust Moto. Can it happen as a combined entity is the big question. They are parts of the business, like STACYC and Dust Moto, which are far more attractive than LiveWire’s motorcycle business for someone willing to walk down the road.

More on why I have been skeptical of LiveWire