I live in Taiwan and own a Gogoro and loved the deeper analysis of this post. Having converted from petrol to Gogoro, my impression is that I've gone from paying $5 per month for petrol to $15 per month for a battery subscription. With purchase incentives for the Gogoro, it will be 5 years before that monthly subscription catches up to the all-in cost of a new petrol bike. However, I wonder if the higher monthly fees weigh heavily on people’s psychology since you definitely have to take a big picture view to keep the Gogoro value in mind.
I think the second-hand market is also relevant. You can get a reasonably good bike for $800 that comes with those low petrol fees (a new Gogoro is around $2000 with incentives). Now that Gogoro has lost its novelty factor, for the vast majority, who see the scooter as a basic tool, that’s tough competition.
For us the warning signals (Re Gogoro) are that it has lost its early mover advantage(Novelty), has terrible business constraints (swapping model) and has sacrificed its hardware business to build swapping revenues.
Owning the swapping network seems like the ultimate moat and network effect. If you operate 10,000+ swap stations, there are very few with the resources to step in and challenge your position (as Kymco is demonstrating). Many companies can make a scooter but the swap network makes you unassailable in terms of captive audience. You're right that its capital intensive but if battery tech progresses, Gogoro will have the keys to the castle as the economics continue to strengthen. I guess the real competitor at that point is user-owned batteries.... which I reckon could be a legitimate threat.
I live in Taiwan and own a Gogoro and loved the deeper analysis of this post. Having converted from petrol to Gogoro, my impression is that I've gone from paying $5 per month for petrol to $15 per month for a battery subscription. With purchase incentives for the Gogoro, it will be 5 years before that monthly subscription catches up to the all-in cost of a new petrol bike. However, I wonder if the higher monthly fees weigh heavily on people’s psychology since you definitely have to take a big picture view to keep the Gogoro value in mind.
I think the second-hand market is also relevant. You can get a reasonably good bike for $800 that comes with those low petrol fees (a new Gogoro is around $2000 with incentives). Now that Gogoro has lost its novelty factor, for the vast majority, who see the scooter as a basic tool, that’s tough competition.
For us the warning signals (Re Gogoro) are that it has lost its early mover advantage(Novelty), has terrible business constraints (swapping model) and has sacrificed its hardware business to build swapping revenues.
Owning the swapping network seems like the ultimate moat and network effect. If you operate 10,000+ swap stations, there are very few with the resources to step in and challenge your position (as Kymco is demonstrating). Many companies can make a scooter but the swap network makes you unassailable in terms of captive audience. You're right that its capital intensive but if battery tech progresses, Gogoro will have the keys to the castle as the economics continue to strengthen. I guess the real competitor at that point is user-owned batteries.... which I reckon could be a legitimate threat.