When the Indian government reduced GST on two-wheelers, as part of a wide-ranging tax reform, it was a boost to two-wheeler sales. ICE two-wheelers saw a reduction in duties and a resultant reduction in prices. Sales received a big boost last month, also bolstered by the Indian festive season, which traditionally sees high sales. The momentum continued this month with more than 2.54 million two-wheelers (ICE +EV) being registered. This is 30-40% higher than the average monthly sales of two-wheelers in the Indian market.
However, an unintentional victim of the price reduction was the Indian E2W market. The tax reduction only benefited ICE two-wheelers; E2Ws were, and still are, at a much lower tax rate. The tax reduction for ICE2Ws just widened the price delta between them and E2Ws. The whole E2W industry took a big hit. We first saw the impact last month when penetration levels, the ratio of E2W sales to total 2W sales, our favorite measure of where things are in the real world, collapsed from 8.03% to 4.57%.
That collapse was drowned in noise as the absolute numbers were quite high on a month-over-month basis. But it was just a case of things being high when they should have been much higher.
This month, it has come to bite. The penetration levels have stayed at 4.59% with no recovery in sight, with the total E2W market accounting for less than 117k units. Last month, we were at 144k units. The E2W industry has declined by 19.2% over the previous month. To be fair, the ICE 2W industry has declined by nearly the same percentage – last month was abnormally high due to the festive season and GST reforms.
Even this month, we do not expect the E2W industry to go into panic mode, as most of the decline has been absorbed by a total collapse in Ola Electric’s numbers. Here is how the year-on-year chart for November looks.
In short, Ather continues to be in a boom-boom mode with sales jumping up 56.78% over the previous November. They are down 28.45% over the previous month.
Hero Vida is up nearly 66% over November 2024, and down 23.8% over the previous month.
The market is led by TVS Motor. With sales of 30,309 units, TVS is up 10.88% over the previous year. Over the previous month, it managed to squeeze out a 2.1% growth.
Bajaj Auto is placed second this month with sales of 25,527 units, a decline of 3.38% on a year-on-year basis. Over the previous month, it has been down 18.7%.
However, it is Ola Electric that seems to be single-handedly pulling the market down. In November 2025, Ola reported sales of 8400 units, a decline of 71.35% over the previous November. In October 2025, Ola’s sales collapsed by 47.7%. Within the last 18 months, Ola has seen a complete collapse in sales, falling from 41,803 units in July 2024, right at the time of its IPO, to 8400 now, a fall of nearlky 80%.
Even within these sales numbers, it is difficult to estimate if a share of these sales was to Ola’s ride-hailing sister concern, a related party transaction, and a practice that Ola has repeatedly done in the past, though round numbers make us suspicious.
