The Indian market is the second-largest E2W market in the world. Considering that most outside-China players would not have a business plan to target the Chinese market, and most Chinese players won't think of entering the Indian market directly, India is the most important E2W market in the world.

In this analysis:

1. E2W Penetration Levels are Not Rising
2. Why isn't the Penetration Level Improving?
3. Why is the Middle Segment so Hard to Penetrate?
A. Then There is the Reach
B. Familiarity Breeds Sales
C. Price Gap is still Massive
4. What Can Pull the Industry Through?
5. Honda's Approach to Things
6. ICE Incumbents Know the Constraints
7. The Startups are out of Fuel
8. Summary: Till Now was Easy; No More Going Forward

Statistically, the market for electric two-wheelers was 1.15 million units in 2024. On a rolling twelve-month basis, more than 1.2 million electric two-wheelers have been introduced. It is still a fairly consolidated market with the top four players accounting for nearly 950k in sales in 2024.

It is also a market that has sucked in more than half of all private investments in the sector, globally.

Are Investors Failing the Industry?
Continuing from last week: Innovation and technology were strong drivers of success in the ICE industry. However, the EV industry would be driven by distribution, reach, and scale in the future. As a result, investment focus would move from vehicles to deployment, and core technology development.
Insight EVDeepesh Rathore

And yet, despite all the excitement and the fairly large numbers, the market has been stagnant when we consider the overall picture.

The Indian Market Two-wheeler Forecast Report

InsightEV is publishing two reports in July. This analysis is a precursor to the first report, The Indian Market Two-wheeler Forecast Report.

With stagnant electric penetration, ICE refusing to give even an inch, performance motorcycles remaining untouchable, the Indian E2W sector has tough barriers. Yet, the industry has opened new frontiers with the gig economy.

The barriers may be insurmountable in the short term, but the market is changing in structure. With the growth in the economy, rapid urbanisation, change in customer needs, and a decline in pride of ownership, there are massive factors at play that would change the shape of the two-wheeler market.

India has always been an outlier market with 5-6 brands controlling nearly all the volume. This is unlike any developed economy where the playing field is wider and a large number of participants. As E2W penetration increases, the number of participants would multiply. The barriers to entry are so low with E2Ws that any mid-sized industrial house can aspire to be a two-wheeler manufacturer. At a 30 million overall market in 2030, even if someone holds a 3% share of the market, that is 600,000 units of sales.

With the above factors in mind, InsightEV is publishing The Indian Market Two-wheeler Forecast Report. The report would cover:

1. Macro fundamentals that shape the Indian market; Trends and the factors defining them
2. Five-year sales history by segment and model (best case) and a ten-year forecast by segment
3. Electric Mobility and the dynamics between ICE and EV manufacturers
4. When would conversion to E2Ws gather pace, and what would do that?
5. Identifying core use cases for two-wheelers in the future and what manufacturers need to do
6. Technology roadmaps and how they would impact BoM costs
7. Company profiles of important participants
8. Customer trends and the impact on how we look at two-wheelers
9. Report customisation options for tyre manufacturers and motor suppliers

Who should have a look at The Indian Market Two-wheeler Forecast Report?

1. Manufacturers and their suppliers should look at it as a decision planning tool
2. Financial institutions as they invest in the Indian two-wheeler industry
3. Private investors supporting or planning to invest in the sector
4. General consultants should look at it as a well-researched, thought-through report with extensive coverage, written by industry veterans.

Mode of delivery: Presentation, Report document, and Datasheet.
Date of Delivery: 21st July
Updates: Every quarter for the annual license
Price (est): USD 2,750 (one-time delivery); USD 3,750 (annual license)
Discount: A 10% discount for anyone submitting EOI; a further 10% discount for all premium subscribers of InsightEV
Expression of Interest: Please fill out the form here

Filling out the form is not an obligation to buy. However, it entitles you to a 10% discount on the price of the report. We would also send an Executive Summary of the report and a list of contents to you when you fill out the form.


E2W Penetration Levels are Not Rising

We plotted the Vahan retail sales data for the last 29 months for electric two-wheeler penetration in the Indian market. Penetration is the share of electric two-wheeler sales in the overall sales mix.

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